News24
27 Mar 2020, 02:41 GMT+10
Covid -19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the US and overwhelm hospital capacity nationally as soon as early April even if social distancing measures are respected, new research showed on Thursday.
The US death toll for the pandemic has already soared past 1 000, with 68 000 confirmed infections.
Forecasters at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine analysed the latest Covid-19 data at a local, national and international level.
These include hospitalisation and mortality rates, as well as patient date in terms of age, gender and pre-existing health problems.
Specifically, they looked at the time lag between the first fatal cases and public interventions such as shuttering schools and businesses.
They then looked at each American state's ICU bed and ventilator capacity.
The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for Covid-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak - also set for some point in April - as many as 2300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models.
This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.
"Our estimated trajectory of Covid-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies," said Christopher Murray, IHME director.
"The trajectory of the pandemic will change - and dramatically for the worse - if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions."
The analysis estimated that approximately 81 000 people in the US will die from the virus over the coming four months.
Estimates ranged between 38 000 and more than 160 000.
It forecast that a total of 41 US states will need more ICU beds than are currently available and that 12 states may need to increase their capacity by 50 percent or more to accommodate patient needs.
The economic shutdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic caused an unprecedented 3.3 million people to file for unemployment benefits last week alone.
"We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks," said Murray.
Get a daily dose of Orlando Echo news through our daily email, its complimentary and keeps you fully up to date with world and business news as well.
Publish news of your business, community or sports group, personnel appointments, major event and more by submitting a news release to Orlando Echo.
More InformationMADRID, Spain: Liverpool footballer Diogo Jota and his younger brother, André Silva, have died in a car accident in Spain. Spanish...
LONDON, U.K.: An unrelenting heatwave sweeping across Europe has pushed early summer temperatures to historic highs, triggering deadly...
President Donald Trump's plans to build a space-based Golden Dome missile defense shield have drawn immediate criticism from China,...
NEW YORK CITY, New York: Paramount has agreed to pay US$16 million to settle a lawsuit brought by U.S. President Donald Trump over...
LONDON, U.K.: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer won a vote in Parliament this week to move ahead with changes to the country's welfare...
WASHINGTON, D.C.: President Donald Trump will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Monday. President...
WASHINGTON, D.C.: In a significant ruling last week, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld a Texas law requiring age verification for users...
EVERGLADES, Florida: Over the weekend, a diverse coalition of environmental activists, Native American leaders, and residents gathered...
(Photo credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images) Brooks Lee hit a walk-off squeeze bunt to score Byron Buxton from third base and delivered...
(Photo credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images) The Toronto Blue Jays placed right-hander Yimi Garcia on the 15-day injured list with a...
Washington DC [US], July 5 (ANI): Julian McMahon's ex-wife, Brooke Burns, remembered the actor with a heartfelt message for the actor...
Washington [US], July 5 (ANI): Elon Musk is threatening Republicans who voted for President Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill,' posing...